Economists at major banks expect New Zealand's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.6% or edge down to 5.5% in the September 2026 quarter. The release from Stats NZ on 4 November will provide the first major labour market update since the June quarter print.
June Quarter Baseline
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 5.6% in the June 2026 quarter. This marked the highest level since September 2015, with 171,000 people unemployed.
Stats NZ data showed labour force growth of 1.6% year-on-year outpacing employment growth of 1.2%. The underutilisation rate reached 13.8%, a 12-year high.
Bank Forecasts for September
Westpac forecasts the rate to edge down to 5.5%. ANZ expects it to remain unchanged at 5.6%.
BNZ and ASB project a fall to 5.5% by the December quarter. Westpac sees 5.4%.
Youth and Structural Concerns
Youth unemployment remains elevated. The 15-19 age group recorded 25.3% unemployment in June 2026. The 20-24 group sat at 12%.
The NEET rate for 15-24 year olds reached 13.8% on an annual average basis to June 2026. Employers appear to favour experienced workers over entry-level hiring.
Employers appear to favour experienced workers over entry-level hiring.
Broader Context and Policy Signal
The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.75% on 28 October in a 4-3 decision. It cited the need to assess prior tightening effects.
RBNZ projections show the unemployment rate staying above 5% until 2028. Treasury's Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update forecasts a gradual improvement to 4.3%.
Filled jobs rose 0.3% in September to 2.36 million. Total gross earnings reached $16.1 billion, up 3.4% year-on-year.
Release Implications
The 4 November Stats NZ release will inform post-election policy settings. A steady or lower rate could support the recovery narrative while highlighting ongoing spare capacity in the labour market.
