Stats NZ to Run $300-400m Traditional Census in 2028 After Reform Impasse

Stats NZ must prepare a traditional full-population census for 2028 at an estimated cost of $300 million to $400 million after the government could not secure the 75 percent parliamentary majority required for modernisation reforms.

Stats NZ faces a statutory obligation to deliver a conventional census in 2028. The impasse blocks a shift to greater use of administrative data from agencies such as Inland Revenue, ACC, MSD, and the Ministry of Education.

Statistics Minister Scott Simpson said the government had welcomed the feedback of the select committee. The Government's focus is on ensuring New Zealand has a reliable census that delivers the quality data New Zealanders, communities, and policy decision makers can rely on and trust, Simpson said, adding that it was the government statistician's role to ensure that the next census meets New Zealanders' needs, in a financially responsible way.

A traditional survey-led census carries a price tag of $300 million to $400 million. Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds highlighted the obvious fiscal pressures the other way regarding census funding against other government priorities.

The data infrastructure at stake

Census data serves as the benchmark for multiple economic indicators. It underpins the Household Labour Force Survey used to calculate unemployment and employment rates. The data also feeds the New Zealand Deprivation Index, which guides targeted funding in health and education since 1991. Treasury relies on census benchmarks for long-term fiscal modelling, while Waka Kotahi and local councils use population and dwelling counts for infrastructure planning.

Former Government Statistician Len Cook noted that per-capita costs for the 2023 census reached twice historical norms. Total spending reached NZ$337 million, including an extra NZ$37 million.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins warned that relying solely on administrative data risks coverage gaps, especially for vulnerable groups. The government proposal of just completely abolishing the census and relying on administrative data – potentially leaves too many holes, particularly around issues like homelessness, Hipkins said.

Historical precedents and the value of the count

According to NZ History, the 2011 census was delayed to 2013 after the Christchurch earthquakes, and cancelling that census added around $65 million in costs. A 2014 Stats NZ valuation found the census delivered NZ$5 in economic benefits for every NZ$1 invested over 25 years through better policy targeting.

Stats NZ chief executive Colin Lynch stated the agency remains committed to high-quality data and will meet its statutory obligations. As Government Statistician, I am committed to delivering high-quality data that is meaningful, relevant, and timely and we will work hard to achieve that. I will ensure we are prepared to meet our statutory obligations under any future scenario, Lynch said.

The next Parliament could still vote to delay the 2028 census, potentially aligning timing with Australia's cycle for improved trans-Tasman data comparability.