New Zealand retail sales volumes increased 0.9 percent in the March 2026 quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. The gain matched the December 2025 quarter and exceeded market expectations of 0.5 percent.
Sales values climbed 2.2 percent to $32 billion. Higher fuel prices drove much of the nominal lift.
Ten of the 15 retail industries recorded higher volumes. Supermarkets, hardware stores, accommodation and pharmacies led the gains.
Fuel sales values jumped 5.9 percent while volumes rose just 0.2 percent. Retailers built inventories sharply, with fuel stocks up 42 percent to $290 million.
Regional picture: South Island outperforms
South Island sales values rose 2.9 percent to $8.1 billion. North Island values increased 2 percent to $24 billion. West Coast and Otago posted the strongest regional lifts.
Michelle Feyen, economic indicators spokesperson at Stats NZ, said the increase in activity this quarter was mainly driven by supermarket and grocery stores; hardware, building, and garden supplies; accommodation; and pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing.
“The increase in activity this quarter was mainly driven by supermarket and grocery stores; hardware, building, and garden supplies; accommodation; and pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing.” — Michelle Feyen, economic indicators spokesperson, Stats NZ
Fuel effect: spending up, but consumers getting less
Westpac noted that fuel spending surged over 17 percent in March as petrol prices rose almost 19 percent. Core spending excluding fuel fell a modest 0.1 percent month-on-month.
The result supports the view that the economy is stabilising after the 2023–2024 slowdown. Yet persistent fuel-driven inflation risks could delay further OCR cuts.
Treasury's Fortnightly Economic Update of 26 March 2026 warned that with high fuel prices likely to be sustained for at least a few months ahead, further growth in spending over 2026 may be constrained by squeezing household disposable incomes.
The June 2026 quarter will show whether the March lift was a temporary fuel effect or the start of broader recovery.
