Trade Minister Todd McClay said New Zealand expects US tariffs on its exports to return to 12.5 percent during the week of 21 July 2026.
McClay noted the rate is lower than the previous 15 percent level but remains unhelpful for exporters.
"We expect during the course of this week it's probably going back to 12.5 percent, which ironically is lower than it was before the court found he didn't use the right legal base but still unhelpful."
The increase follows a US court ruling that temporarily cut tariffs from 15 percent to 10 percent for 150 days. The original tariffs began at 10 percent in April 2025 under the Liberation Day policy. They rose to 15 percent on 7 August 2025.
Section 301 Investigation
The latest rate stems from a June 2026 USTR Section 301 investigation. It cites failures to enforce prohibitions on forced labour imports.
New Zealand officials rejected the claims. They noted no evidence of harm to US commerce from forced labour practices in New Zealand.
New Zealand lacks a bilateral free trade agreement with the United States. It relies on a 1992 Trade and Investment Framework Agreement.
Export Impact
New Zealand goods exports to the US total around NZ$9 billion annually. This includes NZ$2.6 billion in meat and NZ$883 million in dairy.
A 10 percent tariff alone was estimated to cost NZ$900 million per year. Effective tariff rates on New Zealand goods rose from 1.1 percent in 2024 to 7.6 percent in 2025.
Exports to the US fell 3 percent annually in the July 2025 quarter after tariffs took effect. Non-US exports rose 10.8 percent in the same period.
Fiscal and Economic Effects
Finance Minister Nicola Willis linked part of the 4.1 percent inflation rate for the year to June 2026 to a 'Trump spike' involving global oil prices and tariff volatility.
RBNZ modelling in its March 2026 'Tariff ripples' note shows short-term disinflationary effects from trade diversion and NZD appreciation. It projects only modest GDP drag.
Longer-term effects could include higher import prices from inefficient supply chains by around 2030.
Weaker export revenues may pressure OBEGAL through reduced tax receipts. Fiscal discipline remains key amid the volatility.
No Retaliation Planned
New Zealand has no plans for retaliatory tariffs. Officials focus on market diversification toward ASEAN and EU partners.
Two-way goods and services trade with the US reached approximately $16.4–16.6 billion recently. The US holds a modest surplus.
